The Florida Keys, Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas have a 61 to 80 percent chance of being impacted by oil from the BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico, according to a report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. However, any oil reaching these areas would have spent considerable time degrading and dispersing and would be in the form of tar balls, not a large surface slick, NOAA added. Much of Florida's west coast has a low probability - 20 percent or less - of oiling. NOAA used modeling of historical wind and ocean currents to project the likelihood that surface oil will impact additional U.S. coastline. More on Trade Only Today.